One of the biggest elections in modern times is today. All the polls out have Harris and Trump at a toss up. I got the data from Real Clear Politics and 270towin.com and ran a MATLAB simulation of the results. I used a Monte Carlo simulation with an error of 1 percentage point. I used the latest 2024 EC vote allocations for the states, which seem to benefit Trump, as when I used the 2020 allocations with the same polling Harris edged out Trump by 0.5.
Here I ran the simulation 100,000 times (20,000 times more than Nate Silver's simulation). I've even simulated the seats from Nebraska and Maine where they are split in congressional districts. For states that do not have public polling I used the results of the 2020 election. All of those states had the winner by a very comfortable margin.
Trump ends up winning by 2.7 EC votes taking the average from RCP and 270towin.
However, adding the new Selzer poll for just Iowa I get a very different result:
However, we know polls are wrong. Now I simulated errors in all the polls and ran each simulation 100,000 times for a total of 10,000,000 simulations. I get the following animated GIF:
Here we see that Harris starts to pull away and wins very comfortably as the polls have ever increasing errors. This makes sense as republicans usually win by just a few points and a few point swing hurts republicans more than democrats.
Let's hope the wannabe dictator loses so he can finally be prosecuted for his crimes.
